People who lost their jobs wait in line to file for unemployment benefits at Arkansas Workforce Center in Fort Smith, Arkansas, US, April 6, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]
Fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will shrink the size of the US economy by roughly $8 trillion over the next decade, according to new projections released by the Congressional Budget Office on Monday.
美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室本周一（6月1日）發(fā)布的最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示，新冠肺炎疫情將使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出在未來10年縮水近8萬億美元（約合人民幣56.8萬億元）。
In a letter to US lawmakers, the CBO said the US economy will grow by $7.9 trillion less from 2020 to 2030 than it had projected in January. That amounts to a 3 percent decline in US gross domestic product compared to its initial estimate.
美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室在寫給美國(guó)議員的信中表示，從2020年到2030年，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出將較1月份時(shí)的預(yù)期減少7.9萬億美元。這相當(dāng)于美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值較最初估計(jì)下降3%。
The stark illustration of the pandemic’s potential economic impact comes one week after White House officials confirmed they would not release their own updated projections this summer in their annual “mid-session” budget review.
在美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室公布新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在影響一周前，白宮官員證實(shí)，他們不會(huì)在今年夏天的年度中期預(yù)算審查中公布對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的最新預(yù)測(cè)。
The pandemic will hamper US economic growth by reducing the amount of consumer spending and closing numerous businesses, the CBO said. Part of the impact will be mitigated by the more than $2 trillion the federal government has already approved in emergency spending for households and businesses.
美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室表示，疫情將減少消費(fèi)者支出，并導(dǎo)致大量企業(yè)倒閉，從而阻礙美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。聯(lián)邦政府已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)為家庭和企業(yè)提供超過2萬億美元的緊急支出，這將部分緩解危機(jī)的影響。
“Business closures and social distancing measures are expected to curtail consumer spending, while the recent drop in energy prices is projected to severely reduce US investment in the energy sector,” said Phillip L. Swagel, the CBO director and former economic expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank.
美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室主任、曾在中右翼智庫美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所任職的經(jīng)濟(jì)專家菲利普·L-史威格說：“企業(yè)倒閉和社交隔離措施預(yù)計(jì)將削減消費(fèi)者支出，而近期能源價(jià)格下跌將大量減少美國(guó)在能源領(lǐng)域的投資。”
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Medical workers take in patients outside a special coronavirus area at Maimonides Medical Center in New York City on May 27, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]
The pandemic’s impact on the US economy has been swift. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April. Tax revenue plummeted, spending skyrocketed, and the economy quickly contracted after years of growth.
新冠疫情使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速受到影響。失業(yè)率從2月份的3.5%上升到4月份的14.7%。稅收收入銳減，支出激增，經(jīng)濟(jì)在多年增長(zhǎng)后迅速萎縮。
The CBO report was requested by Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who serves on the Senate Budget Committee. The CBO had previously released forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室的報(bào)告是應(yīng)參議院少數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖查爾斯·E-舒默和參議院預(yù)算委員會(huì)成員、聯(lián)邦參議員伯尼·桑德斯的要求做出的。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室此前曾發(fā)布2020年和2021年的預(yù)測(cè)。
“Slower growth means higher unemployment, lower wages, and less income for people. What we are looking at is another decade of that,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork.
Upwork的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞當(dāng)·奧茲梅克說：“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩意味著更高的失業(yè)率、更低的工資和更少的收入。未來10年很可能會(huì)這樣。”
The White House said last week it would not be releasing its updated economic projections, such as GDP and unemployment statistics, because of the high level of volatility in the US economy. CBO and other economic analysts have been able to do so.
白宮上周表示，由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高度波動(dòng)性，不會(huì)發(fā)布國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和失業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)等最新經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)。而美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室和其他經(jīng)濟(jì)分析人士已經(jīng)做出了預(yù)測(cè)。
The CBO’s letter says while “real” GDP will fall by about $8 trillion, “nominal” GDP will fall by $16 trillion over the next 10 years. That measure is viewed by economists as less significant because it does not include the impact of inflation.
美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室在信中說，在未來10年，“實(shí)際”國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將下降大約8萬億美元，“名義”國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將下降16萬億美元。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為這一指標(biāo)不太重要，因?yàn)樗话ㄍㄘ浥蛎浀挠绊憽?/p>
Lawmakers are debating whether to renew several federal aid programs set to expire, including a sizable increase in unemployment benefits that will lapse at the end of July. Congressional Democrats seized on the CBO’s findings to argue additional emergency aid is urgently needed.
國(guó)會(huì)議員們正在討論是否延長(zhǎng)幾個(gè)即將到期的聯(lián)邦援助項(xiàng)目，其中包括將在7月底到期的大幅度增加失業(yè)救濟(jì)。國(guó)會(huì)民主黨人利用國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室的調(diào)查結(jié)果爭(zhēng)辯稱，現(xiàn)在迫切需要更多的緊急援助。
“In order to avoid the risk of another Great Depression, the Senate must act with a fierce sense of urgency to make sure that everyone in America has the income they need to feed their families and put a roof over their heads,” Schumer said in a statement. “The American people cannot afford to wait another month for the Senate to pass legislation. They need our help now.”
舒默在一份聲明中說：“為了避免另一場(chǎng)大蕭條的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，參議院必須以強(qiáng)烈的緊迫感采取行動(dòng)，確保每個(gè)美國(guó)人都有足夠的收入來養(yǎng)家糊口，不至于無家可歸。美國(guó)人民等不了參議院用一個(gè)月時(shí)間通過法案了，他們現(xiàn)在急需我們的幫助。”
英文來源：華盛頓郵報(bào)
翻譯&編輯：yaning
